10 games remaining..

With 10 games to go it is indefinitely a 2 horse race. For a few months or so some pundits believed that Tottenham had an outside chance, but with them now 14 points behind the leaders Manchester United with 10 games remaining, there title hopes are all but finished. Moreover, after City’s disappointing loss to newly promoted Swansea City, the football bets (unavailable to US customers) now back Manchester United to win their 20th league title and pip their opponents, come May. However, how can this be so? City have been top since Ocober, and now they are 1 point behind when there is still a possible 30 on the table.

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There is a long way to go. Some may argue that experience and an ‘easier’ run-in favour the reigning champions, but on the other hand City’s squad and home form could swing it in their favour. In my opinion, I believe it is going to be the closest title yet, with Manchester City winning the league on goal difference. And this is how I believe it will happen..

Out of the 10 games remaining for both Manchester Clubs, both have to go to Molineux (where both teams lost last year) and play QPR at home. These teams are both down at the bottom, which aren’t particularly the teams you want to  play at the tail end of the season. However, I believe that both teams will gain 3 points from the QPR game and then both scrape a win at Wolves away.

If you take the remaining fixtures and give the same result to the other Manchester club, then City would win on goal difference (depending on beating United in the derby). This means that United would win their other 3 home games Aston Villa, Fulham and Swansea. In addition, United would go to Wigan and Blackburn, and win both fixtures.

City’s run in contains teams higher up the table, with Arsenal away and Chelsea at home within these. However, if you contrast these 2 games with United’s fixtures, United won both of these.

However, if you take City’s loss at Sunderland and give United 0 points as well at the Stadium of Light, give City just a point at Stoke City and 0 points away at Newcastle, this means that both teams would finish on 91 points if City won in their home fixture against their arch rivals. City currently have 8 better goal difference, which would surely still mean that in 10 games time their goal difference will be superior.

 

(P.S I don’t believe that City will finish on 91 points, especially with their current poor away form, I was just comparing the 2 sides last 10 games)

 

Any thoughts / beliefs behind last 10 games?